Uncertainty Management & Quantification in Industrial
Analysis and Design

27 - 28 October 2016
Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium


Coordinator: Prof. C. Hirsch
Em. Vrije Universiteit Brussels
President, Numeca Int., Belgium


Organiser: Dr. Richard E. Seoud, ERCOFTAC
Open for registration

 


Aim

Uncertainty quantification is a new paradigm in industrial
analysis and design as it aims at taking into account the
presence of numerous uncertainties affecting the behaviour
of physical systems. Dominating uncertainties can be either
be operational (such as boundary conditions) and/or
geometrical resulting from unknown properties, such as tip
clearances of rotating compressor blades or from
manufacturing tolerances.

Whether bringing a new product from conception into
production oroperating complex plant and production
processes, commercial success rests on careful management
and control of risk in the face of many interacting
uncertainties. For example a new aircraft or aero-engine
must be designed and engineered within a given time frame
and budget to meet a given set of performance requirements,
and then manufactured at unit cost and rates that meet an
overall business plan. Today’s fiercely competitive market
and increasingly stringent regulatory environment is such
that there is very little margin of error. Failure to
appreciate, understand and appropriately manage risks
inevitably results in severe financial penalties, and even
irrevocable damage to reputation.

Historically, chief engineers and project managers have
estimated and managed risk using mostly human judgment
founded upon years of experience and heritage. As the 21st
century begins to unfold, the design and engineering of
products as well as the control of plant and process are
increasingly relying on computer models and simulation. This
era of virtual design and engineering opens the opportunity
to deal with uncertainty in a systematic formal way by which
sensitivities to various uncertainties can be quantified and
understood,and designs and processes optimized so as to be
robust against such uncertainties. Human judgment will
always play an important role, but leading companies in many
fields of engineering are increasingly aware of these
possibilities and uncertainty quantification is beginning to
feature strongly in their strategic aspirations. Thus this
is a very opportune moment to introduce a two- day awareness
course on this emerging topic.

The aim is to share the aspirations and requirements of
leading companies in the fields of Aerospace, Formula 1 and
Power generation; review emerging methods and techniques and
how these are being deployed; and define the current
state-of-the-art and map out-near term future possibilities.

Lecturers
Prof. Charles Hirsch - Coordinator
Em. Vrije Universiteit Brussels
President, Numeca Int., Belgium

Dr Ghader Ghorbaniasl
Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium

Dr. Shahrokh Shahpar
Rolls-Royce, Derby, UK

Dr. Francesco Montomoli
Imperial College, London, UK

Dr Gilbert Rogé
Dassault Aviation, FR

Dr. Dirk Wunsch
NUMECA Int., BE

Registration: richard.seoud-ieo@ercoftac.org. 

Fees: Members €595, Non-Members €895

Fees do NOT cover accommodation